PGA Championship Week Recap (etc.) Part I: How Did LIV Golfers Fare?

 In the Norse tradition, Valhalla is the place where heroes go when they die in combat. But there is another, IRL Valhalla in Louisville, Kentucky, and it's just hosted its fourth PGA Championship.

No, we didn't see Rory McIlroy end his major drought dating to the 2015 Masters. No, Jordan Spieth didn't complete the career grand slam. And no, Scottie Scheffler wasn't able to keep alive his Scottie Season Slam hopes. He did, however, get clapped into jail for not cooperating with the cops at a traffic stop after a poor fan had been killed in a car crash. This led to a third day of split tees, which you normally don't see at majors.

We also saw yet another dramatic finish on the premises. In 1996, Mark Brooks nipped local boy Kenny Perry in a one-hole, sudden-death playoff. In 2000, Tiger Woods caught Bob May and effectively beat him with his birdie on the first hole of what was now a mandatory three-hole aggregate playoff. In 2014, Rory McIlroy won the PGA Championship as fast fell the eventide by one stroke over Phil Mickelson. And just today, 19 May 2024, we saw Xander Schauffele launch the first-ever season Golden Slam bid (and add to his career one) by responding to LIV founding member Bryson DeChambeau's closing birdie with one of his own from just outside 6' to set a new scoring record for men's majors against par (-21/263).

I mentioned LIV Golf. What you see here is a grid of what I call "expectations versus reality." Since the majors are the only events at which LIV golfers compete against PGA Tour loyalists these days, I decided to compare the proportional performances of the various LIV contingents at the majors since the start of last year to assess their "real" performances when the size of the field and its nature (club pros and amateurs excluded who are not otherwise exempt to the majors) are taken into account. In other words, I'm sort of making like Phil Steele, except for professional tour golf.

The "LIV" column is simply the number of members of LIV Golf at each major. The "aField" column is the total field size minus any amateurs (Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship) or not-otherwise-exempt club pros (PGA Championship). I say "not otherwise exempt" because of the case of such guys like Michael Block, who placed in the top fifteen and ties at last year's PGA Championship, so he didn't need to play the PGA Professional Championship to get in (he did anyway but finished outside the top twenty). The "tField" column is simply the total number of golfers--tour pros, club pros and amateurs--who are competing in that major.

"aProp" refers to the proportion of LIV golfers among those covered in the "aField." "tProp" is the overall proportion of LIV golfers in the field. As you can tell, there has been a slight decline in the proportions due to the lack of OWGR points for LIV golfers. In general, the largest percentages of LIV membership at each major have been correlated with the Masters Tournament and the PGA Championship. This may be because the first category for exemption to each of those majors is simply having won the event in the past, no questions asked. This year's contingent at Valhalla may also have benefited numerically from further defections to LIV among the OWGR top 100 (Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Adrian Meronk), a good performance among last year's contingent (especially winner Brooks Koepka) and special invitations extended to members outside the top 100 (Talor Gooch comes to mind). While the jury is still out on the last two majors of this year, last year's "open" majors had much lower percentages of LIV members. This may stem, in part, from restrictions on past champions (such as the USGA's ten-year limit and the R&A's age-sixty, soon to be age-55, limit).

The three columns with the letters "NY" revolve around the number of golfers invited to the following edition of that particular major by virtue of a top finish. For the open majors, one must finish in the top ten and ties to be automatically invited next year if not otherwise exempt. For the Masters Tournament, it's top twelve and ties. For the PGA Championship, it's fifteen and ties. The column "xNY" multiplies the original "NY" column by "tProp" to ascertain the number of expected LIV golfers among the top finishers. This year, seventeen overall players finished among the top fifteen and ties. Of these, two--DeChambeau and South Africa's Dean Burmester--are affiliated with LIV Golf. The latter number is noted under "lNY," which indicates the actual LIV membership among the top finishers.

The last three columns are marked "T4." These refer to the number of top-four finishers at a given major. The original column is, again, multiplied by "tProp" to derive "xT4." As with "xNY," "xT4" is the expected total of golfers in that range. I track this because the three majors other than the Masters send their top-four finishers to next year's Masters, no matter what. This year's PGA "lT4" came up with one LIV member, Bryson DeChambeau. Not as though he needs the exemption because he won the 2020 U.S. Open, which gives him Masters access through next year. After that, though, it'll matter.

This year's majors have been a mixed bag for LIV so far. Given the data above, I would argue that the LIV contingent was generally successful in living up to expectations at Valhalla. But this is a step down from the Masters, where they exceeded expectations in terms of top-twelve finishes. So, how will they do at Pinehurst next month, home of the U.S. Open? Or at Royal Troon, home of the Open Championship the month after? Feel free to offer your predictions, either on the YouTube short I posted or in the comment form below.

Upper Midwest Connection of the Week Ending 14 April 2024

 In my last post, I mentioned in passing that Zach Johnson is an Umcee who also happens to be a former Masters champion. Back in 2007, he won the green jacket despite struggling to a +1/289--good enough to beat Retief Goosen, Rory Sabbatini and Tiger Woods by two strokes. Conditions were so horrible that any of the 97 participants that year would've been entitled to laugh at Jon Rahm's complaints about this year's Friday conditions.

But that was then. Fast-forward seventeen years later and ZJ got into trouble for cussing at a crucial juncture. He missed the cut by one stroke (+7/151 after two rounds) and, barring open qualification or other merits for this June's U.S. Open at Pinehurst in North Carolina, we won't see him in another major until the Open at Royal Troon in July. Needless to say, the best of times is behind the two-time major winner. But there was an Umcee who did make the cut at Augusta...

(PGA Tour)

Erik van Rooyen.

You would think that a guy who struggled on all but one day--Thursday's -1/71 opening round--en route to a T55 finish, dropped three places in the FedEx Cup and slipped a spot in the OWGR would not merit to be Upper Midwest Connection of the Week, but there are a couple good reasons for my selecting EVR for the honour. Firstly, that he made the cut at all is a milestone--van Rooyen withdrew after a single round in 2020 due to injury and MC in 2022 on his last visit. Moreover, the ten (even) FedEx Cup points he earned enabled him to pip Grayson Murray (winner of this year's Sony Open) to the final Next 10 place in this week's RBC Heritage. Though to be fair, Nicolai Hojgaard's collapse on the weekend helped as well!

This week features all three PGA Tour circuits in action for the first time this year. The Heritage, in addition to van Rooyen and 67 others (yes, they fell short of seventy again, which means they need to consider adding alternates in 2025 and beyond), Tom Hoge returns from a fortnightly hiatus. Part of it was voluntary, but it made the other part required, as Hoge's decision to skip the Texas Open despite not qualifying for the Masters rendered last week an off week for him. On top of the signature event at Hilton Head Island in South Carolina, the Corales Punta-Cana Resort Championship takes a side stage in the Dominican Republic. Although ZJ won't be in the Umcee contingent, Troy Merritt returns to action, and he'll be joined by former Minnesota Gopher Thomas Longbella, who won the Monday qualifier to make the event for the second straight year. The way in was last week to allow for travel plans, as with most overseas events on the PGA Tour.

Beyond the big tour, the Korn Ferry Tour holds the LECOM Suncoast Classic. North Oaks, Minnesota's Frankie Capan III will be there, and conditional member Van Holmgren of Plymouth, Minnesota will join him in an effort to gain full access to the following four events via the reshuffle. Lastly, the other four Umcees in action this week will be playing the Brazilian Open on the PGA Tour Americas. Derek Hitchner of Minneapolis will be looking to build on his last start, which resulted in a T3 at the Totalplay Championship three weeks ago and got him Upper Midwest Connection of the Week honours, and he'll be joined by George Kneiser, Harrison Ott and Matthew Walker, among others. For the second straight year, dating back to the PGA Tour Latinoamerica last year, the host course will be the same that hosted the 2016 Olympic golf tourney--the first such event since 1904 in St Louis.

Edward the Scop

Masters Review + Various Activity Updates

 The core of the golf season has begun! Well, for those who read this blog, there is no core of the season since the entire campaign matters. But a chapter does seem to be turned each year when the Masters Tournament is played in such a way that you don't get with the fall series or even the Players Championship. Perhaps it's in the way that CBS replaces NBC as the primary U.S. weekend afternoon broadcaster of PGA Tour events through at least the Wyndham Championship every August. (This year, since it's an Olympic year, CBS gets the FedEx Cup playoffs as well so that NBC can concentrate on the Games in Paris.) Especially in recent years, it also matters that LIV member-contractors are back alongside PGA Tour golfers in a way you normally don't see outside the majors. Or maybe it's the fact that almost everywhere you go in the Lower 48, it's springtime, a fact not lost on Augusta National Golf Club. Here in Minnesota, we had temps in the 70s this past weekend!

Masters Week began in earnest Tuesday night (after the usual practice round for all 89 participants, of course) with defending champion Jon Rahm serving up a Basque-style Champions' Dinner in the ANGC clubhouse, four decades to the year after Seve Ballesteros served his second and final Masters Club. Rahm collaborated with his countryman, the legendary chef Jose Andres, to feed what by all accounts was a tasty meal to 32 fellow past champions--including one Umcee, 2007 champion Zach Johnson--and ANGC chairman Fred Ridley. The only non-attendees among past champs were Angel Cabrera (2009), who is still dealing with visa issues stemming from his domestic-abuse past in Argentina, and Bernhard Langer (1985/1993), who injured his Achilles while playing pickleball. (Langer has vowed to make 2025 his last Masters actually playing--a fitting swan song forty years after his first win.) Of course, most of us will never know what it was really like, as the only elements historically made known to virtually everyone who isn't a past Masters champion have been a picture of the past surviving champs and a copy of the menu. In any case, the night's fun and unity ended when Tom Watson (1977/1981) said: "Ain't it good to be together again?" Raymond Floyd (1984/1995) apparently felt his blood run so cold that he left the dinner. The remaining attendees sat there in silence, as Watson himself attested two days later following his ceremonial tee-off with Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player.

The Masters' past champions betray little sign of dissension in their ranks (Golf Magazine).

Controversy and gastronomy aside, the next day was marked by the par-3 contest. It is said that you don't want to win the event if you want a green jacket come Sunday evening, for no par-3 contest winner has gone on to win the main event the same year. This year, the fun but unfortunate burden dropped upon Rickie Fowler. He needed others to struggle in the tough conditions of Friday to avoid the same MC fate that befell Johnson's fellow-Umcee Tom Hoge last year. Fowler at least went -1/143 at the weekend to finish T30, but it obviously wasn't nearly enough to end the curse. He earned $124 200 for his week.

In the end, the winner was surprisingly predictable. Scottie Scheffler, who came in at 4-1 odds--having lost the Houston Open a fortnight earlier by missing a short birdie try to Stephan Jaeger of Germany--pulled away from a tie at -7 through three rounds with Collin Morikawa (who remains a green jacket and U.S. Open title away from the career grand slam) to beat Masters (and major championship) newbie Ludvig Aberg by four strokes, -11/277 to -7/281. Morikawa finished third alongside Max Homa and Tommy Fleetwood (who remains winless stateside despite seven DP World Tour wins) on -4/284. The top LIV member-contractors were Bryson DeChambeau and Cam Smith, two shots back at -2/286. Percentagewise, it was a pretty good showing for the LIV contingent. Let me explain:

Thirteen LIV member-contractors participated in the 2024 Masters Tournament out of 89 total competitors. If you divide 13 by 89, you get a proportion of ~14.6067 per cent affiliated with LIV at Augusta National.

Fifteen players--the top twelve and anybody tying for twelfth--are expected to be back next year at Augusta. If you multiply 15 by the proportion of 14.6067 per cent, you get about 2.191 LIV golfers expected to finish in that range on average. Rounded up to the next whole number, it's safe to say three would have been a decent expectation. In the end, four--DeChambeau, Smith, Tyrrell Hatton and past champ Patrick Reed--were among the free invites. Of course, it's not like the first two were in need of a qualifying mechanism anyway, as DeChambeau is exempt at all majors through next year's U.S. Open and that one alone for five years thereafter, while Smith is exempt to them all through 2027. That said, given how far LIV member-contractors have fallen down the OWGR for lack of points for the circuit or access to points-bearing events better than those on the Asian Tour for the most part, I'm sure Hatton will be especially grateful for the opportunity to come back next year.

Other, more PGA Tour-loyal beneficiaries of the expected top-12 rule are Xander Schauffele, Cam Young, Will Zalatoris, Cam Davis, Matthieu Pavon and Adam Schenk. Given the tough conditions, it's no surprise that only Xander finished under par for the week.

Questions for next year's tournament: Will Angel Cabrera be let back into the United States? How will Bernhard Langer fare in what's expected to be his final Masters? Will the mainstream tours--including, but not limited to, the PGA Tour--be any nearer a rapprochement with LIV Golf, rendering Watson's quip redundant? How many Umcees will be in the field? Perhaps above all, will Scottie Scheffler retain the green jacket; and if so, will he have to put it on by himself?! (If not, of course, whom will he invest with it?)

As a postscript, I should note that as I write this, one of the busiest fortnights of the blog year is upon me. My next post, scheduled for Wednesday or even Tuesday, recognizes the top Upper Midwest connection of Masters Week. By Friday, you can expect to see my FA Cup semifinal picks, and then the next week sees another Upper Midwest Connection of the Week post. And of course, I'll need to get tuned up for the golf season at my local course. But the biggest part of these next two weeks for the blog is my NFL Draft Day Party Hangover live feed. See the Glossary that I put up during the weekend for more details on the system and its inspiration, but I will reiterate the details in all likelihood in some future post here.

Edward the Scop

Upper Midwest Connection of the Week Ending 7 April 2024

 By now, you would expect a piece like this to be published two days from now, as I typically need time to account for the Monday qualifiers for the following collection of events and any late withdrawals. This ensures my preview portion of each such post will include all Umcees participating in a given week and omit any who drop out. However, I don't expect (barring an injury, of course) that either of the two Umcees participating in this week's Masters Tournament will drop, and the Monday qualifier for next week's event in the Dominican Republic has already been decided. More on those matters later.

Anyway, last week was the last chance to qualify for "glory's first shot" at the Valero Texas Open. There was a full field of 156 players. Three of them--Erik van Rooyen, Zach Johnson and Troy Merritt--are Umcees, but only Merritt had yet to qualify for this year's Masters. Van Rooyen won in Cabo for his invite last November, while Johnson, of course, took the maillot vert in 2007, entitling him to tonight's Champions' Dinner in the clubhouse at Augusta National for the 17th year running. Meanwhile, on the Korn Ferry Tour, the Club Car Championship in Savannah, Georgia--down the river Savannah from Augusta--involved 156 more players trying to get to the PGA Tour. Only one Umcee, Frankie Capan III, was among them.

(FGCU Athletics)

As it turns out, the Umcee contingent at TPC San Antonio wiped out--the two Umcees already qualified for this week's major were closest to the cut, finishing round 2 at +2/146 overall--but Capan got his first top-ten finish of 2024, finishing T9! His only poor round was a +2/74 Saturday, and he shot -2/70 or better the other three days, including -5/67 both Friday and Sunday. This performance moved him to #49 in the points list and a new career best of #324 in the OWGR.

This week, as I mentioned above, the Masters Tournament takes centre stage in the world of golf. I called it "glory's first shot" in reference to the fact that, when it was the last major of the season, the PGA Championship was referred to as "glory's last shot." I don't expect ZJ to don the green jacket for the second time or EVR to do so either. But if either can make the cut, I will be satisfied.

Meanwhile, today (Monday, 8 April) was the open qualifier for next week's Corales Punta-Cana Resort Championship in the Dominican Republic. Three Umcees--two former Minnesota Gophers (Angus Flanagan and Thomas Longbella) and a former Iowa Hawkeye (Alex Schaake) --were among the sixty golfers participating. Schaake fell short by four strokes and Flanagan by two. But Longbella won the qualifier, making his second straight trip to the DR to play on the PGA Tour. He missed the cut last year but hopes to improve significantly this year. Of course, he won't be in that week's Brazilian Open at the site of the 2016 Olympic golf tournament won by Justin Rose. I still think it's a desirable tradeoff.

Edward the Scop